The biggest tournament of the year, the Qatar World Championships will start today. To add to the excitement factor, 4 players have theoretical chances to become world #1 afterwards in the 2013 January rankings (which, as paradoxical as it sounds, is also the equivalent of the 2012 year-end rankings). We at No Let! have switched on our calculators to unveil the different scenarios. Read them through and let us know who your pick is below in the comment box.
Gregory Gaultier's chances are very low: if either Ramy Ashour or Nick Matthew achieve the quarter-finals, he will lose his chances even if he ends up winning the tournament. Even if Ramy and Nick fail to reach the quarter-finals, he must hope that James Willstrop will not make the final.
James Willstrop must get to the final or, even better, win to give himself a realistic chance to retain his world #1 title. But if any of Ramy Ashour or Nick Matthew make the semis he will surely concede his ranking regardless of winning the title.
If Ramy Ashour wants to become world #1, he has to make sure to make it to one more round than Nick Matthew. He will for sure become world #1 if he makes the final (as that would mean that Matthew didn't get there as they are in the same half of the draw).
If Ramy Ashour wants to become world #1, he has to make sure to make it to one more round than Nick Matthew. He will for sure become world #1 if he makes the final (as that would mean that Matthew didn't get there as they are in the same half of the draw).
If Nick Matthew wants to become world #1, he has to make sure to make it to one more round than Ramy Ashour. He will for sure become world #1 if he makes the final (as that would
mean that Ramy didn't get there as they are in the same half of the
draw).
James Willstrop is very likely to make the final (he's got Barker, Darwish or Mohamed El Shorbagy in his draw and according to their respective head-to-head history and current form he is unlikely to lose to any of them). Ashour and Matthew have a much tougher draw. Ashour will meet Gaultier and Matthew will play Shabana at quarter-final stage according to seedings. If Matthew and Ashour both win their quarter-final matches, then the world #1 ranking will be down to their semi-final match; the one who wins that will be world #1 in January irrespectively of further results. If on the other hand Gaultier and Shabana respectively beat Ashour and Matthew in the quarter-finals, then they open the draw for James Willstrop to retain his world #1 ranking. In this case, he would only need to get to the final and could even afford to lose eventually to Gaultier there.
quarter semi final win
Nick Matthew 1171.0 1216.5 1291.0 1390.0
Ramy Ashour 1163.0 1208.5 1283.0 1382.0
James Willstrop 1059.0 1103.5 1179.0 1278.0
Gregory Gaultier 908.0 953.5 1028.0 1127.0
So basically it comes down to Ramy and Nick. If they both make the semis, one of them will be world #1; if they both fail to make the semis (with both Gaultier and Shabana producing a big win at quarter-final stage which they might be capable of) then Willstrop has a big chance to retain his #1 ranking. Gaultier can only become #1 if Ramy and Nick lose before the quarter-finals (very unlikely) and James doesn't make the final (unlikely as well, knowing his quarter of the draw).
On the above pictures, Nick Matthew is smiling bright. But who will be really smiling at the end of the day? Who would you pick to be the world #1 in next month's ranking?
Nick Matthew 1171.0 1216.5 1291.0 1390.0
Ramy Ashour 1163.0 1208.5 1283.0 1382.0
James Willstrop 1059.0 1103.5 1179.0 1278.0
Gregory Gaultier 908.0 953.5 1028.0 1127.0
So basically it comes down to Ramy and Nick. If they both make the semis, one of them will be world #1; if they both fail to make the semis (with both Gaultier and Shabana producing a big win at quarter-final stage which they might be capable of) then Willstrop has a big chance to retain his #1 ranking. Gaultier can only become #1 if Ramy and Nick lose before the quarter-finals (very unlikely) and James doesn't make the final (unlikely as well, knowing his quarter of the draw).
On the above pictures, Nick Matthew is smiling bright. But who will be really smiling at the end of the day? Who would you pick to be the world #1 in next month's ranking?